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The Composite ADR Index fell 0.1 pct, underperforming the S&P 500, which fell 0.5 pct for the week. Latin America ADRs rose 3.2 pct, while Asia fell 0.4 pct, and Europe fell 0.5 pct. For more data see World Page and graphs see Analysis Page (updated 8/22)
Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade (Update1)
"Over the course of time, it's a bull market."
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade. Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade (Update1) (updated 8/24)
Fast Money Recap (8/22/08)
"bullish on the grain market...," says Dennis Gartman
Dennis Gartman came to discuss commodity plays. He said he is “still long” and is remaining “bullish on the grain market.” Gartman said that, technically speaking, he is bullish on corn and wheat specifically, and he said investors will “see the dollar continue to get strong.” He noted the lack of a rebound in the euro and said he believes that many people are caught long in the euro. Discussing gold, Gartman said that it is highly dependent on India, specifically its political tensions and crop growth. Gartman summarized, saying “do the tough trade,” and be out of gold. Fast Money Recap (8/24/08) (updated 8/24)
Commodities: Some reasons not to expect a collapse in raw-materials prices From The Economist print edition
Endurance test
As Mr Kloppers pointed out, emerging markets, and China in particular, now account for the lion’s share of growth in global demand for raw materials, and a good chunk of overall consumption.
DURING the six months to the end of June commodities posted their best performance in 35 years, rising by 29%. In July they had their worst month in 28 years, falling by 10%. The slide continues: an index compiled by Reuters, a news agency, shows that prices are almost a fifth below the pinnacle reached in early July. The Economist’s index, which excludes oil, has fallen by over 12%. Breathless headlines have hailed the bursting of a bubble.
But most analysts are more reticent. They cite various reasons for the recent drop in prices, chief among them the darkening economic outlook in rich countries. In recent weeks it has become clear that Europe and Japan are faring even worse than America, and so are likely to consume less oil, steel, cocoa and the like. But that does not necessarily presage a collapse in commodity prices, they argue, thanks to enduringly strong demand from emerging markets such as China. Commodities Endurance test (updated 8/24)
Argentina Clouds gather again over the Pampas From The Economist print edition
After six years of rapid growth, Argentina’s economy is at a familiar turning-point, in which the president’s refusal to change course threatens to make it poorer.
EVER since Argentina began its recovery in mid-2002 from a devastating financial collapse, it has seemed to defy economic gravity. The country’s left-wing government, first led by Néstor Kirchner and then this year by his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, has violated many standard economic prescriptions: it has shunned the IMF and shafted private bondholders; kicked out foreign companies and set up new state-owned ones; imposed price controls; and even doctored the inflation figure. Yet over the past six years, Argentina’s economy has grown at an annual average rate of 8.3%—faster than any other big economy except China. Clouds gather again over the Pampas (updated 8/24)
Chinese Solar Firms Shine
In an agreement with local authorities, Yingli Green Energy, a manufacturer of photovoltaic products, will build its first on-grid solar power plant, a 10-megawatt facility set to begin construction in the second half of 2009.
The still-maturing Chinese green energy market had a bonanza Friday, which elated investors.
Yingli Green Energy (nyse: YGE - news - people ) inked a deal to build a power plant near Beijing, sending its shares soaring over 15% on Wall Street. China Sunergy (nasdaq: CSUN - news - people ) soundly beat earnings estimates, leading to an over-18% jump in its share price. But it's not all good news--analysts cautioned on the risks of a solar oversupply and technology lag in the Chinese sector. Chinese Solar Firms Shine (updated 8/24)
Emerging-Market Retreat Is `Overdone,' Mobius Says (Update2)
"The correction seems to be overdone but not necessarily over because sentiment globally is very bad."
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks have tumbled more than is justified because demand for raw materials continues to boost economic growth in those nations, Mark Mobius said. Emerging-Market Retreat Is `Overdone,' Mobius Says (Update2) (updated 8/20)
Jim Rogers Continues to View China as the World’s Best Long-Term Profit Play
"I have never sold any of my Chinese companies."
Despite its many problems, China remains such a strong long-term profit play that giving up on that country now would be like selling all your U.S. stocks at the start of the 1900s - before America created massive wealth by evolving into a world superpower, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning. Jim Rogers Continues to View China as the World’s Best Long-Term Profit Play (updated 8/20)
Goldman sees more pain for banks, brokers
"We expect third-quarter results will be hampered by declining global equity markets, further deterioration in mortgage assets, and slower levels of corporate and institutional activity."
Analysts cut profit estimates and warn of more write-downs, asset sales. BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs analysts became the latest to chop their profit estimates on bank and brokerage stocks on the expectation of more ugly write-downs triggered by the ongoing tumult in credit markets. Goldman sees more pain for banks, brokers (updated 8/20)
ADRs end up 1.32 pct Wednesday, led by China, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Australia; Japan ADRs are down
Asian Stocks Rise in U.S. on Oil, Metals Rally; Toyota Drops Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks trading in the U.S. rose for a second day, led by raw material shares as oil and natural gas rallied on speculation Tropical Storm Gustav may disrupt production in the U.S. Gulf Coast. ADR Report-Energy shares, U.S. data boost ADRs NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Overseas shares traded in the United States rose on Wednesday as strong U.S. data on durable goods orders helped sooth growth concerns while energy and natural resource companies gained with rising oil prices. High Oil Prices Prove Mixed Bag In China High crude oil prices may hinder China's refiners but they benefit some of the country's oil producers. China's biggest offshore oil and gas producer posted a better-than-expected first-half profit, while its top two refiners saw first-half profit plummet by more than expected. Beijing's regime of uneven price controls allows China National Offshore Oil Corp. (nyse: CEO - news - people ), or CNOOC, to sell crude at high market-set prices to refining giants PetroChina (nyse: PTR - news - people ) and Sinopec (nyse: SNP - news - people ), which sell finished oil products to domestic consumers at state-controlled prices. With current high global oil prices, "upstream" producers will earn more with higher production while "downstream" operators will lose money as they increase output. (updated 8/27)
Asian Stocks Gain, Led by China Mobile, Woodside After Earnings; European Stocks Climb on U.S. Durable Orders; U.S. Stocks Gain on Durable Goods; Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Rise - Wednesday
Brazil Stocks Rise on Easing Inflation, Banks; Bolsa Gains.
Asian Stocks Gain, Led by China Mobile, Woodside After Earnings Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks advanced after earnings at China Mobile Ltd. and Woodside Petroleum Ltd. beat estimates, bolstering optimism the region will weather slowing global growth. European Stocks Climb on U.S. Durable Orders; ABB, BAE Gain Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks advanced for a second day after a report showed orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly increased in July and higher commodity prices boosted the profit outlooks for energy and metal producers. Latin American stocks end up for the day. Brazil Stocks Rise on Easing Inflation, Banks; Bolsa GainsAug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks gained for the first time in four days as drop in wholesale prices in two years boosted retailers and banks while rising commodity prices sent energy and steel producers higher. U.S. Stocks Gain on Durable Goods; Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Rise Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day after orders for durable goods unexpectedly advanced in July and analysts said new investments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will boost their earnings. (updated 8/27)
Oil, Energy Stocks, Bonds, Currency, Gold - Wednesday
Energy Futures Increase as Gustav Threatens U.S. Gulf Platforms.
Energy Futures Increase as Gustav Threatens U.S. Gulf Platforms Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil, natural gas and gasoline rose on speculation Tropical Storm Gustav will become the most damaging hurricane since Katrina as it moves toward production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Asia Currency Weakness Has Just Started, Morgan Stanley Says Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Slides in Asian currencies will gather pace as demand cools in the world's biggest economies and investors shift funds out of the region into dollars, according to Morgan Stanley. Euro Rises From Six-Month Low Against Dollar on Weber, Oil Gain Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose from a six-month low versus the dollar as European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said discussion about a reduction in interest rates is ``premature'' and crude oil prices increased for a third day. Gold Futures Rise on Demand for Inflation Hedge; Silver Drops Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose for a second straight day as energy costs surged and the dollar weakened against the euro, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver fell. Corn, Soybeans Advance as Dollar's Gain Stalls, Crude Oil Rises Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybeans rallied as a drop in the dollar boosted the appeal of U.S. supplies for overseas importers and rising energy costs increased demand prospects for biofuel. Wheat gained for the first time in four days. (updated 8/27)
Asian Mining Stocks Advance, Led by BHP; China Mobile Declines; European Stocks Fall, Led by Natixis; U.S. Index Futures Drop - Thursday
European Stocks Fall, Led by Natixis; U.S. Index Futures Drop Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell after Natixis SA and Credit Agricole SA reported earnings that missed analysts' estimates and higher oil damped the profit outlook for carmakers and airlines. U.S. index futures declined, while Asian shares advanced.
Asian Mining Stocks Advance, Led by BHP; China Mobile Declines Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Asian commodity stocks advanced as concern eased that an economic slump will curb raw-material demand, countering losses in phone and technology shares after analysts downgraded China Mobile Ltd. and Samsung Electronics Co.
Japan's Topix Index Declines on Bankruptcy Concerns; Acom Jumps Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Topix index fell for a third day on concern more developers will go bankrupt, while shipping lines declined on a sixth-straight drop in commodity cargo fees.
Asian Stocks Gain, Led by China Mobile, Woodside After Earnings; European Stocks Climb on U.S. Durable Orders; U.S. Stocks Gain on Durable Goods; Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Rise - Wednesday
U.S. Stocks Gain on Durable Goods; Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Rise Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day after orders for durable goods unexpectedly advanced in July and analysts said new investments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will boost their earnings.
Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Unexpectedly Gain (Update2) Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly increased in July, indicating that growing demand from abroad is still helping companies weather a slump in domestic spending.
Fannie, Freddie Attract Buyers to Short-Term Debt (Update1) Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sold $3 billion of short-term notes at yields that suggest the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies are still capable of financing their businesses without government assistance.
Pimco Seeks as Much as $5 Billion for Distressed Debt (Update1) Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., the biggest manager of bond funds, is seeking as much as $5 billion to buy mortgage-backed debt that plunged in value after the subprime market collapsed, according to two investors with knowledge of the matter.
Energy Futures Increase as Gustav Threatens U.S. Gulf Platforms Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil, natural gas and gasoline rose on speculation Tropical Storm Gustav will become the most damaging hurricane since Katrina, as it moves toward production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
European Stocks Climb on U.S. Durable Orders; ABB, BAE Gain Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks advanced for a second day after a report showed orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly increased in July and higher commodity prices boosted the profit outlooks for energy and metal producers.
Asian Stocks Gain, Led by China Mobile, Woodside After Earnings Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks advanced after earnings at China Mobile Ltd. and Woodside Petroleum Ltd. beat estimates, bolstering optimism the region will weather slowing global growth.
Australian Stocks close flat The Australian share market ended flat on Wednesday as gains among the miners offset weakness in financial stocks. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 closed 3.7 points, or 0.07 per cent, higher at 5011.2, while the broader All Ordinaries added 5.5 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 5087.8. At 1615 AEST on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the September share price index contract was 11 points higher at 4997 on a volume of 22,502 contracts. CMC Markets senior dealer Analyst Dominic Vaughan said Macquarie Group led the financials down after a broking house downgraded the investment bank.
China Stocks Fall for 5th Day; Offshore Oil, China Eastern Drop Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China stocks fell for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in 10 weeks, as higher fuel and raw material costs pared earnings at industrial and transportation companies.
HK shares close up 1.8 pct; China Mobile leads HONG KONG, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares closed 1.8 percent higher Wednesday, lifted by sharp post-earnings relief rallies in index heavyweights China Mobile
Closing Bell: Sensex Wednesday closed at 14,301.13, down 181.09 points or 1.25 per cent The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share Sensex Wednesday closed at 14,301.13, down 181.09 points or 1.25 per cent from the previous day's close. The high at the end of trade was 14,563.10, and low 14,261.69. National Stock Exchange's 50-stock Nifty was at 4296.45, down 41.05 points or 0.95 per cent.
``We are going to have plenty of setbacks in commodities but when they happen please keep your heads about you, do some more homework, and if you decide that thing is still OK I would suggest you might think about buying more commodities,'' Rogers said today.
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said the fundamentals for commodities are ``astoundingly'' good.
The bull market for commodities ``has a long way to go,'' Rogers, 65, said today at an investor conference at the Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. The bull market may end by 2020 based on historical cycles, he said. Commodity Prospects `Astoundingly' Good, Rogers Says (Update1) (updated 8/06)
Energy Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore - Barron's
"Given such valuations, it seems tough to go wrong now with XTO or almost any major energy stock, even if energy prices fall a little further."
One of the sharpest corrections ever in energy stocks, which has dragged shares of most large energy companies to below 10x next year's earnings, is a seldom-seen opportunity to make 25% or more on your money over the coming year, Barron's Andy Bary says.
Energy analyst David Kistler notes major independents like Anadarko (APC), Devon Energy (DVN) and XTO Energy (XTO) are trading at little more than half their net asset values, making their risk/reward excellent. Such firms are heavily focused on North American E&P, which shields them from much of the geo-political turmoil multinational peers have suffered in Venezuela, Russia and Nigeria. APC and DVN are also prime takeover targets at current prices. Energy Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore - Barron's (updated 8/10)
Mobius Sees `Good Bargains' in China, India Stocks (Update1)
"We've been rearranging the portfolio based on valuations, which have come down pretty dramatically in places like India and China."
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in China and India offer ``good bargains'' after declines this year dragged down valuations in Asia's two largest emerging markets, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said. Mobius Sees `Good Bargains' in China, India Stocks (Update1) (updated 7/21)
So near and yet so far - From The Economist print edition Jul 31st 2008
Trade ministers have come too close to a deal to let the Doha round die.
IN MANY examinations, 90% is an excellent score, deserving a prize and a handshake from the headmaster. In Geneva this week, only full marks would do, and the world’s trade ministers failed. No matter that they came closer to a deal than anyone should have expected (see article). No matter that they stuck at it for nine days and several nights, in the longest ministerial meeting in the history of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). No matter, too, that this time they parted in stunned disbelief, heads shaking, rather than in acrimony, recrimination and spite, as at Cancún in 2003. They managed “convergence” on 18 of the 20 topics set before them by Pascal Lamy, the WTO’s director-general, but they stumbled on the 19th, a device for protecting farmers in developing countries against surges in imports. They never reached the 20th, cotton. Failed. So near and yet so far (updated 8/07)
China Commodities Demand to Rebound Next Quarter, Goldman Says
"We believe that the key structural themes behind the commodities and resources boom of the past five years are very much intact."
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities demand from China, the world's largest metals consumer, will rebound in the next quarter and investors should buy some mining stocks, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty said. Investors have more than priced in a ``worst-case'' scenario in China's economic growth to just 8 percent in the recent stocks sell-off, analyst Malcolm Southwood said. Buying now would be ``rewarding,'' he said, without naming stocks. China Commodities Demand to Rebound Next Quarter, Goldman Says (updated 8/13)
Russia Becomes Worst 3rd-Quarter Stock Market on Oil (Update1)
"This bounce should be sold."
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's RTS stock index is turning into the world's worst performer this quarter as tumbling oil, a war in Georgia and the probe of a steel company remind investors owning shares in the former Communist nation can be perilous. Russia Becomes Worst 3rd-Quarter Stock Market on Oil (Update1) (updated 8/13)
IMF: Inflation risks propelling more into hunger
'If food prices rise further and oil prices stay the same, some governments will no longer be able to feed their people and at the same time maintain stability in their economies.' - Dominque Strauss-Kahn.
Some countries teeter on economic instability as commodities prices run. SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that inflation was pushing some developing economies toward the "tipping point" of widespread hunger, and the international finance organization urged cooperation among wealthier countries to boost supplies.
In a study of 162 countries, the Washington, D.C.-based IMF said surging global oil and food prices are causing the most pain in poor countries that rely on imports. IMF: Inflation risks propelling more into hunger (updated 7/01)
India proposes changes in ADR/GDR pricing rules
It wants to use the average share price over two months, cutting the time period from the current six months
NEW DELHI, Aug 1 - India has proposed changes in the pricing rules for overseas share sales by Indian companies and is seeking public comments, the finance ministry said in a statement posted in its website. The finance ministry proposes changing rules governing how the price for an American or global depository receipt issue is calculated. India proposes changes in ADR/GDR pricing rules (updated 8/01)
Templeton's Mobius Has Been Buying Taiwanese Stocks (Update2)
"We have Taiwan assets and we are buying Taiwan assets"
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said Taiwanese stocks are inexpensive and he's been buying them on expectation that the island will benefit from closer ties with China. Templeton's Mobius Has Been Buying Taiwanese Stocks (Update2) (updated 4/16)
High crude oil prices may hinder China''''s refiners but they benefit some of the country''''s oil producers. China''''s biggest offshore oil and gas producer posted a better-than-expected first-half profit, while its top two refiners saw first-half profit plummet by more than expected.
Beijing''''s regime of uneven price controls allows China National Offshore Oil Corp. (nyse: CEO - news - people ), or CNOOC, to sell crude at high market-set prices to refining giants PetroChina (nyse: PTR - news - people ) and Sinopec (nyse: SNP - news - people ), which sell finished oil products to domestic consumers at state-controlled prices. With current high global oil prices, "upstream" producers will earn more with higher production while "downstream" operators will lose money as they increase output. High Oil Prices Prove Mixed Bag In China
India’s second-largest IT services provider, Infosys Technologies, today gave up gains of over 2 per cent to close 1.7 per cent down at the close of trading on reports from a London-based securities house which said that the IT major could face a counter-bid to acquire Britain’s Axon Group. Infosys slips on Axon counter-bid buzz
Latin America ADR News
NEW YORK, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Overseas shares traded in the United States were little changed on Tuesday, but natural resource companies gained as crude oil prices rose and global miner Rio Tinto reported results that topped estimates. ADR Report-ADRs flat; Rio Tinto up on results
